Tuesday, May 14, 2013

How I find small-cap value earnings breakouts

So at this point I think I'll describe how I find stocks I think are worth buying using a relatively recent example, IMH. I'm using IMH because to me at least it seemed like a particularly obvious buy, practically waving its hands and shouting 'buy me!'. Clearly a picture is worth a thousand words so that's where I'll start.

The facts of the situation are that IMH announced quarterly EPS of $0.51 after the market closed on 14 August 2012. The following day the stock rose 87% on ~185x (!!!) average volume.

So basically my first criteria is a big positive earnings surprise based on the post-earnings-announcement drift (Ball and Brown, 1968) factor. I define a big positive earnings surprise as a stock price increase > 10% on > 10x average volume following earnings, with either an implied earnings yield (i.e. qEPS * 4 / price) or quarterly revenue growth also > 10% (ideally both, but that very rarely happens). I used the word obvious earlier and I can't remember another stock that met these criteria so easily except maybe DDRX, as per the chart above.

Next I want a small-cap (Banz, 1981) value (Basu, 1977) stock, which I define as a market cap. < $5 bn. and a P/S < 1.5. It easily passed these filters too with a cap. of only $33 m. and P/S of 0.05.

Finally I want to see positive price momentum (Jegadeesh, 1990) in terms of a breakout above the earnings day and 52-week highs, confirming that the stock has begun to 'drift'. I've seen some traders who buy on earnings day which probably isn't necessarily bad, but it's quite common for earnings surprises not to follow through and I'd rather avoid those situations. In the case of IMH it wasn't necessary to wait long as it broke out two days later (08/17/12), meeting my final criteria.

At least in the blogosphere I only know of stockbee and Solitary Trader (links in my blog list) who use somewhat similar strategies so it'd be great to hear from others!

Open positions:
04/10/2013,XRM,7.4598,25.33%
04/19/2013,OSTK,18.589,43.23%
04/23/2013,POWR,13.882,2.56%
04/24/2013,ECTY,1.6599,27.26%
04/25/2013,LLEN,2.8799,28.48%
05/06/2013,REGI,12.0099,8.74%
05/09/2013,CSPI,8.299,0.01%

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